Inferred Status reflects where a Concept stands in its growth trajectory, combining verified unit growth and historical closures into a single, easy-to-interpret trend indicator.

Calculation methodology

Each month, Restaurantology evaluates the Concept’s:

• Unit Growth over the past six months.
• Historical Closures over the past 24 months.

Based on this data, a Concept is assigned one of six possible statuses:

• High Growth
• Emerging
• Stable
• Stagnant
• Declining
• Struggling

Status groupings

Using growth and closure severity, 16 possible combinations are summarized into the following statuses:

High Growth

• Rapid unit growth, no (or negligible) closures.

Emerging

• Rapid growth with few closures.
• Positive growth with no (or negligible) closures.

Stable

• Rapid growth with moderate closures.
• Positive growth with few closures.
• No growth with no (or negligible) closures.

Stagnant

• Rapid growth with significant closures.
• Positive growth with moderate closures.
• No growth with few closures.
• Negative growth with no (or negligible) closures.

Declining

• Positive growth with significant closures.
• No growth with moderate or significant closures.
• Negative growth with few or moderate closures.

Struggling

• Negative growth with significant closures.

Interpretation considerations

[01] Subjectivity and data lag
As with all Restaurantology growth and closure metrics, Inferred Status relies on publicly available, verified data. Variances in reporting frequency, self-reported closures, and timing of new openings can affect real-time accuracy.

[02] Strategic use
Inferred Status is designed to simplify complex growth and closure dynamics into a single trend metric. This allows revenue teams to prioritize Concepts more effectively without having to manually assess raw growth or closure data.

Additional information

While this article explains the methodology behind Inferred Status, instructions for applying trend filters can be found in Browse using an advanced search.

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